Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 Energie Cottbus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
41%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.14
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.19
X/2
11%
6.27
X/X
6%
5.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
25%
4.09
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.8pp
41%
Away Win
33%
+7.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Energie Cottbus EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.37/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.58
-10% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +138%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
234 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Energie Cottbus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
237 Passes 352
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
02.03.2016 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.09.2015 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
21.02.2014 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 2-3 HT 0-3 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
23.08.2013 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL2
14.12.2012 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL2
10.08.2012 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 3-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-3
AWAY Energie Cottbus
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 5
371 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Energie Cottbus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Energie Cottbus saw off Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 20% / 41% — and on the day Energie Cottbus made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 51% of the ball to Energie Cottbus's 49%, shots finished 13-23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.00 for Energie Cottbus.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Energie Cottbus?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 Energie Cottbus in the Germany - 3rd Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Energie Cottbus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Energie Cottbus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 40%, draw 20%, Energie Cottbus 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Energie Cottbus), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Energie Cottbus) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
22 Oct 2024
20:00 Sandhausen vs Stuttgart II Analysis →
20:00 Borussia Dortmund II vs Waldhof Mannheim Analysis →
20:00 Viktoria Köln vs Ingolstadt Analysis →
20:00 Saarbrücken vs Hansa Rostock Analysis →