Reims 3-1 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 25% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.11
1/2
6%
22.9
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
13%
10.15
X/2
22%
4.22
X/X
10%
5.44
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.12
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+5.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reims EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 60%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.12/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.04
-15% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +17%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
16.4 Crosses 20.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reims
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Marsilya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.00 xG 1.65
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
286 Passes 426
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.08.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-0 Reims Reims FR1
15.05.2024 Reims Reims 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
12.08.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Reims Reims FR1
19.03.2023 Reims Reims 1-2 HT 1-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
07.08.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 4-1 HT 2-0 Reims Reims FR1
24.04.2022 Reims Reims 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reims
3-1
AWAY Marsilya
0.98 xG 1.09
20% Ball Possession 80%
7 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 12
112 Passes 677
57% Pass Accuracy 90%
7 Box Touches 39
2 Crosses 50
POST-MATCH Reims vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reims saw off Marsilya 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Reims had 20% of the ball to Marsilya's 80%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 0.98 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Reims and 1.83 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Reims vs Marsilya?

Reims 3-1 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reims vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Reims 27%, draw 24%, Marsilya 49%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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