Monaco vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monaco v Nice — Team-Based Signals
Monaco vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Nice
FR1
0-3
HT 0-3
Nice
FR1
0-1
HT 0-0
Monaco
FR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Nice
FR1
Monaco 2-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics
Monaco nicked a narrow win over Nice 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Monaco had 57% of the ball to Nice's 43%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.45 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monaco and 1.33 for Nice.
What was the final score of Monaco vs Nice?
Monaco 2-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monaco vs Nice?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Monaco 46%, draw 24%, Nice 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.