Elfsborg 2-0 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 29 Apr 2024

Elfsborg
2-0 HT 1-0
IK Sirius
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Elfsborg vs IK Sirius Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.39
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
17%
4.34
X/2
11%
7.58
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
10%
5.65
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v IK Sirius — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.45/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.32
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
431 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.6 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Elfsborg vs IK Sirius Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY IK Sirius
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 0.80
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
272 Passes 486
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.08.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 1-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
08.05.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 3-4 HT 2-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
18.09.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 2-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
14.05.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
24.10.2021 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 3-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
12.05.2021 IK Sirius IK Sirius 0-2 HT 0-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ

Elfsborg 2-0 IK Sirius — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
2-0
AWAY IK Sirius
1.17 xG 1.14
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
213 Passes 511
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg got the better of IK Sirius 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 33% of the ball to IK Sirius's 67%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.17 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Elfsborg and 0.83 for IK Sirius.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs IK Sirius?

Elfsborg 2-0 IK Sirius in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 44%, draw 29%, IK Sirius 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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