Chaves vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chaves v Alverca — Team-Based Signals
Chaves vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Chaves 0-2 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics
Alverca beat Chaves 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Chaves had 53% of the ball to Alverca's 47%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 0.84 to 1.98.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alverca led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chaves and 1.50 for Alverca.
What was the final score of Chaves vs Alverca?
Chaves 0-2 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chaves vs Alverca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chaves 43%, draw 26%, Alverca 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chaves) went the other way.