Palmeiras 4-1 Junior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 29 May 2026

Palmeiras
4-1 HT 3-1
Junior
📅29/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2026

Palmeiras vs Junior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
78%
1.28
Draw
14%
5.15
Away
8%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.15
Over
57%
1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.24
No
53%
1.57
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
20%
3.92
2-3
43%
1.81
4-5
27%
2.97
6+
10%
9.32
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.92 — our 20% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1.44
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
4%
23.95
X/1
21%
3.57
X/2
3%
20.8
X/X
6%
7.62
2/1
10%
23.95
2/2
3%
19.3
2/X
4%
28.0
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Palmeiras v Junior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras The Market 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Junior The Market 12%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Great
2.15 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.17
0.58 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.52
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Great
Great Defensevs comparable teams Great
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.2
22.1 Crosses 9.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Palmeiras vs Junior Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Junior
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.93 xG 0.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
332 Passes 429
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2026 Junior Junior 1-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
11.04.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 1-0 Junior Junior LKU
07.03.2019 Junior Junior 0-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
17.05.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 0-0 Junior Junior LKU
02.03.2018 Junior Junior 0-3 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU

Palmeiras 4-1 Junior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
4-1
AWAY Junior
1.93 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 7
358 Passes 370
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 22
3 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Palmeiras vs Junior
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Palmeiras overpowered Junior 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, Palmeiras had 49% of the ball to Junior's 51%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.93 to 1.10.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Palmeiras and 0.40 for Junior.

Palmeiras vs Junior Result & Final Score

Palmeiras 4-1 Junior in the Copa Libertadores on 29/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Palmeiras vs Junior Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 78%, draw 14%, Junior 8%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LKU More Copa Libertadores
29 May 2026
01:00 Cerro Porteno vs Sporting Cristal Analysis →
03:30 Cruzeiro vs Barcelona SC Analysis →
03:30 Boca Juniors vs Universidad Catolica Analysis →