Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Parceiro Nagano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 29 Jun 2024

📅29/06/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Parceiro Nagano EU Bookmakers 28%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.49/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.73
+3% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Parceiro Nagano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.10.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano JAP3
13.05.2023 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano 2-1 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
30.10.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 1-0 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano JAP3
15.05.2022 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Parceiro Nagano
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Parceiro Nagano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 49% of the ball to Parceiro Nagano's 51%, shots finished 17-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.75 for Parceiro Nagano.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Parceiro Nagano in the Japan - J3 League on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Parceiro Nagano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 47%, draw 24%, Parceiro Nagano 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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