29/06/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
2-2
Ogre United vs Smiltene Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
23%
Draw
24%
27%
Away Win
27%
46%
Under 2.5
46%
54%
Over 2.5
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ogre United v Smiltene — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ogre United
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Smiltene
EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+15% /
+15%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+35%
/
+63%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
13
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
339 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
288 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Ogre United vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ogre United and Smiltene shared the points in a 2-2 draw.
Our pre-match lean was Ogre United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
What was the final score of Ogre United vs Smiltene?
Ogre United 2-2 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ogre United vs Smiltene?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ogre United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ogre United 49%, draw 23%, Smiltene 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ogre United) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Ogre United)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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More Latvia - 1st Division
29 Jun 2024