Super Nova 4-1 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 29 Jun 2024

📅29/06/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.17
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-6.6pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-11.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.7pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 19%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.00/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/3.46
-2% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -43%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova swept aside Progress / AFA Olaine 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Super Nova 4-1 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 58%, draw 18%, Progress / AFA Olaine 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Super Nova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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