Mönchengladbach 1-0 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.39
No
47%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.37
2-3 Goals
37%
2.12
4-5 Goals
29%
2.52
6+ Goals
11%
5.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.68
1/2
5%
26.0
1/X
3%
14.15
X/1
10%
5.02
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
6.8
X/X
18%
6.97
2/1
5%
20.1
2/2
13%
4.01
2/X
3%
14.15
Value flag · X/2 at 6.8 — our 19% vs market 10.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+12.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-12.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-14.7pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.32/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.55
-18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
244 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-0
AWAY Holstein Kiel
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach edged past Holstein Kiel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Mönchengladbach made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 63% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 37%, shots finished 12-5.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?

Mönchengladbach 1-0 Holstein Kiel in the Friendlies on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 38%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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