Dukagjini 1-5 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 29 Jul 2026

📅29/07/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
55%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.88
No
41%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.08
6+ Goals
9%
10.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
22%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
16%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
55%
Away Win
63%
-8.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-4.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+4.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
49%
+9.8pp
41%
BTTS No
51%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dukagjini EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 67%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -76% / -76%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.00
-100% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -78%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
247 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
Crosses 10.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dukagjini
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugano
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 2.47
12 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
179 Passes 565
6 Box Touches 39
9 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.07.2026 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 1-0 Dukagjini Dukagjini AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dukagjini
1-5
AWAY Lugano
1.34 xG 3.28
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
229 Passes 442
9 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Dukagjini vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano cruised past Dukagjini 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.34 to 3.28.

What was the final score of Dukagjini vs Lugano?

Dukagjini 1-5 Lugano in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 29/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dukagjini vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dukagjini 20%, draw 25%, Lugano 55%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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