Bristol City 4-1 Newcastle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 29 Jul 2026

Bristol City
4-1 HT 2-0
Newcastle
📅29/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Bristol City vs Newcastle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
2.78
6+ Goals
8%
7.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 32% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.34
1/2
7%
20.9
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
14%
7.88
X/2
16%
4.81
X/X
11%
5.63
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
21%
2.5
2/X
5%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-14.0pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol City v Newcastle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle EU Bookmakers 53%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
0.12/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/2.36
-90% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -49%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
– Crosses 2.0
– Yellow Cards 0.7

Bristol City 4-1 Newcastle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
4-1
AWAY Newcastle
7 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 17
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Newcastle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City swept aside Newcastle 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, shots finished 7-13.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Newcastle?

Bristol City 4-1 Newcastle in the Friendlies on 29/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Newcastle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 33%, draw 23%, Newcastle 44%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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