Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 29 Jul 2026

📅29/07/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.29
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
58%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
4.58
Over 2.5
62%
1.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.25
No
34%
3.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
10.2
2-3 Goals
39%
2.59
4-5 Goals
28%
2.25
6+ Goals
16%
3.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
15.95
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
8%
9.02
X/2
12%
5.32
X/X
10%
7.93
2/1
5%
24.8
2/2
34%
2.23
2/X
5%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 15.95 — our 12% vs market 3.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
27%
-6.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
58%
Away Win
52%
+5.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
18%
+19.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
82%
-19.2pp
66%
BTTS Yes
76%
-9.9pp
34%
BTTS No
24%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 56%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.97/2.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.75
+63% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 83%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
12.0 Crosses 8.6
Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.97 xG 2.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
351 Passes 558
88% Pass Accuracy 92%
14 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 6
24.07.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-3 HT 0-3 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.81 xG 0.74
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
372 Passes 475
27 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka edged past Borussia Dortmund 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Borussia Dortmund at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.81 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Borussia Dortmund in the Friendlies on 29/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 21%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 58%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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