Hoffenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 29 Jul 2026

📅29/07/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.22
2-3 Goals
37%
2.09
4-5 Goals
29%
2.44
6+ Goals
14%
4.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.1
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
19%
4.61
X/2
6%
9.19
X/X
7%
7.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
17.85
2/2
13%
5.95
2/X
6%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.85 — our 9% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.2pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
2.62/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.70
+43% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +128%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.29 xG 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.01.2025 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-3 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
24.08.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-2 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
26.10.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 5-1 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
3-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim got the better of Holstein Kiel 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.33 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Hoffenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel in the Friendlies on 29/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 54%, draw 22%, Holstein Kiel 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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