Hoffenheim 3-2 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.05
2-3 Goals
42%
2.08
4-5 Goals
25%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
11%
4.23
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
10.35
X/X
12%
6.92
2/1
8%
19.05
2/2
11%
6.67
2/X
5%
15.0
Value flag · X/2 at 10.35 — our 13% vs market 6.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.9pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.6pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-6% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.6 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.63 xG 0.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
403 Passes 362
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
38 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.10.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 5-1 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
3-2
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3.48 xG 1.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
385 Passes 303
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 27
28 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 55% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 45%, shots finished 21-17, expected goals 3.48 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hoffenheim's control.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Hoffenheim 3-2 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 46%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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