Freiburg 3-1 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Aug 2024

Freiburg
3-1 HT 1-1
Stuttgart
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.76
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
7.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.45
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
11%
7.86
X/2
17%
4.69
X/X
11%
5.59
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
14%
2.51
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.45 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.3pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 52%
+9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.21/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.06
+7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 82%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.3
17.9 Crosses 20.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Freiburg vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.35 xG 1.31
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
328 Passes 456
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
02.09.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-0 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
20.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.01.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
28.08.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-3 HT 2-3 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 3-1 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
3-1
AWAY Stuttgart
2.13 xG 0.35
33% Ball Possession 67%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
236 Passes 571
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg beat Stuttgart 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Freiburg had 33% of the ball to Stuttgart's 67%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.13 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Freiburg and 1.83 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Stuttgart?

Freiburg 3-1 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 34%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stuttgart) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2024
16:30 Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel Analysis →
16:30 Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Analysis →
16:30 RB Leipzig vs Bochum Analysis →
16:30 Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Analysis →
19:30 Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →