Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 Feb 2024

Freiburg
1-3 HT 1-2
Stuttgart
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.37
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.52
1/2
10%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
6.39
X/2
9%
4.84
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
32.5
2/2
13%
3.05
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.5 — our 12% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+10.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 46%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -28%
1.51/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.22
+16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -15%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 77%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
20.2 Crosses 18.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Freiburg vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.46 xG 1.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
320 Passes 416
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-0 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
20.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.01.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
28.08.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-3 HT 2-3 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
23.01.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-3
AWAY Stuttgart
0.70 xG 1.76
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 6
266 Passes 628
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart got the better of Freiburg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 34% of the ball to Stuttgart's 66%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.70 to 1.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Freiburg and 1.50 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Stuttgart?

Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 42%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Freiburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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