Bayern Münih 3-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
29%
5.0
Over 2.5
71%
1.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
12.8
2-3 Goals
31%
2.86
4-5 Goals
35%
2.28
6+ Goals
19%
2.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.23
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
30.5
X/1
19%
3.86
X/2
5%
33.5
X/X
7%
15.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
17.9
2/2
4%
21.1
2/X
5%
28.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.9 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
81%
-13.2pp
18%
Draw
11%
+7.3pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+5.8pp
29%
Under 2.5
17%
+11.9pp
71%
Over 2.5
83%
-11.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.1pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
2.81/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.47
+35% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -1%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
536 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
43.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.8 Crosses 10.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
2.07 xG 1.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
503 Passes 287
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
18.02.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-2 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
27.08.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
07.01.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-2 HT 1-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
27.10.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 5-0 HT 3-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
13.08.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
2.08 xG 0.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
526 Passes 405
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih beat Mönchengladbach 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (71%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 56% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 44%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.08 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bayern Münih and 2.17 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Mönchengladbach?

Bayern Münih 3-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 68%, draw 18%, Mönchengladbach 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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