Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Aug 2024

Augsburg
2-2 HT 2-1
Werder Bremen
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.12
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.38
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.51
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
5.99
X/X
13%
5.08
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
3.79
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · X/2 at 5.99 — our 19% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.43/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.59
+0% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.2 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 1.58
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
266 Passes 377
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 0-3 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
09.12.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
04.03.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
09.09.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
15.05.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.01.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.03 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
311 Passes 388
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg and Werder Bremen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 46% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 54%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.03 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Augsburg and 1.33 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 38%, draw 26%, Werder Bremen 35%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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