Holstein Kiel 1-3 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Jan 2025

Holstein Kiel
1-3 HT 0-2
Hoffenheim
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.03
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
6%
11.85
X/1
15%
6.52
X/2
14%
5.76
X/X
9%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.0
2/2
19%
3.31
2/X
6%
11.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.1pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.5pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.5pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +0%
1.09/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.43
-67% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
12.1 Crosses 18.8
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.23 xG 3.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
332 Passes 394
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 39
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-2 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
26.10.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 5-1 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK

Holstein Kiel 1-3 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-3
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.04 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
293 Passes 246
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 22% / 40%) promised a tight game; Hoffenheim found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 54% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 46%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.04 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Holstein Kiel and 4.00 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim?

Holstein Kiel 1-3 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 38%, draw 22%, Hoffenheim 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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