Bayern Münih 3-2 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.14
Over 2.5
64%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.2
2-3 Goals
39%
2.22
4-5 Goals
28%
2.36
6+ Goals
15%
4.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.23
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
29.0
X/1
9%
3.94
X/2
6%
34.0
X/X
7%
12.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
22.1
2/2
8%
28.5
2/X
5%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 15% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
82%
-18.9pp
19%
Draw
11%
+7.8pp
18%
Away Win
7%
+11.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.8pp
64%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
2.81/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.02
+37% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -3%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
575 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
42.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
22.1 Crosses 12.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Wolfsburg
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.72 xG 1.10
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
553 Passes 313
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
12.05.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
20.12.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-2 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
05.02.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-4 HT 1-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
14.08.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
14.05.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-2
AWAY Wolfsburg
3.07 xG 0.54
72% Ball Possession 28%
25 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
632 Passes 197
92% Pass Accuracy 73%
44 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih edged past Wolfsburg 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 72% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 28%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 3.07 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayern Münih's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.17 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Wolfsburg?

Bayern Münih 3-2 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 63%, draw 19%, Wolfsburg 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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