Stuttgart 4-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Jan 2025

Stuttgart
4-0 HT 3-0
Freiburg
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Stuttgart vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
8.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.65
X/1
14%
4.21
X/2
10%
10.65
X/X
9%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.4
2/2
9%
8.11
2/X
5%
16.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
2.21/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.69
+8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
404 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
22.2 Crosses 14.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Stuttgart vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Freiburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.49
57% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
475 Passes 333
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
03.02.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
02.09.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-0 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
20.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.01.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Stuttgart 4-0 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
4-0
AWAY Freiburg
2.03 xG 0.21
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 1
454 Passes 316
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart cruised past Freiburg 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 57% of the ball to Freiburg's 43%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 2.03 to 0.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Stuttgart and 1.50 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Freiburg?

Stuttgart 4-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 52%, draw 24%, Freiburg 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5
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