Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.29
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.61
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
5.74
2-3 Goals
39%
2.04
4-5 Goals
29%
2.51
6+ Goals
16%
5.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.45
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.55
X/1
15%
3.92
X/2
4%
19.45
X/X
13%
8.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.85
2/2
9%
15.55
2/X
4%
23.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
73%
-12.1pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.4pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.8pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.8pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
2.22/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.22
-3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
600 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 73%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.0 Crosses 12.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.95 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
528 Passes 425
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
42 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
27.01.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
26.08.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.05.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 2-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
22.01.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
15.01.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
2.07 xG 0.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
533 Passes 440
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen got the better of Mönchengladbach 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 54% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 46%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.07 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.17 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Mönchengladbach?

Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 61%, draw 22%, Mönchengladbach 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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