Cerezo Osaka 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Jul 2024

📅24/07/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.29
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
57%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.38
No
39%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.13
2-3 Goals
35%
2.2
4-5 Goals
33%
2.45
6+ Goals
14%
4.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.01
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
19.05
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
7%
8.51
X/2
15%
4.84
X/X
8%
6.74
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
31%
2.32
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.05 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-2.1pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.3pp
57%
Away Win
51%
+5.4pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.6pp
39%
BTTS No
32%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
Crosses 13.4
Yellow Cards 0.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.97 xG 2.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
351 Passes 558
88% Pass Accuracy 92%
14 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 6
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund squeezed past Cerezo Osaka 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 40% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 60%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.97 to 2.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?

Cerezo Osaka 2-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 24%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 57%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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