Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cerezo Osaka v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals
Cerezo Osaka 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund squeezed past Cerezo Osaka 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 40% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 60%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.97 to 2.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.
What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?
Cerezo Osaka 2-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Borussia Dortmund?
Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 24%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 57%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.