Leganes 1-2 Alcorcon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Jul 2024

📅24/07/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
32%
3.72
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.86
Over 2.5
38%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 33% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-14.1pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
50%
+12.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
50%
-12.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.27/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.42
-30% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Alcorcon
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.81 xG 1.02
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
326 Passes 252
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
18.02.2024 Leganes Leganes 3-0 HT 1-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
05.01.2024 Alcorcon Alcorcon 0-0 Leganes Leganes HAZ
19.08.2023 Alcorcon Alcorcon 0-2 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
03.08.2022 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-2 HT 0-2 Leganes Leganes HAZ
30.01.2022 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 0-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
20.10.2021 Alcorcon Alcorcon 3-3 HT 2-2 Leganes Leganes İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
1-2
AWAY Alcorcon
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Alcorcon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcorcon nicked a narrow win over Leganes 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leganes at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 57% of the ball to Alcorcon's 43%, shots finished 21-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leganes had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Leganes and 0.67 for Alcorcon.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Alcorcon?

Leganes 1-2 Alcorcon in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Alcorcon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leganes 43%, draw 32%, Alcorcon 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leganes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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