24/07/2024
·
12:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-3
2nd Score
2-2
Southampton vs Bordeaux Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
11%
24%
Draw
16%
51%
Away Win
72%
43%
Under 2.5
34%
57%
Over 2.5
66%
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
50%
BTTS No
47%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Southampton v Bordeaux — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Southampton
EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bordeaux
EU Bookmakers 77%
-21% /
-21%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-100%
/
+15%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
39%
Ball Possession
61%
9
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Target
6
3
Corners
7
254 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
451 · 84%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Southampton vs Bordeaux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Southampton squeezed past Bordeaux 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Bordeaux at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Southampton vs Bordeaux?
Southampton 3-2 Bordeaux in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Southampton vs Bordeaux?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bordeaux win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Southampton 25%, draw 24%, Bordeaux 51%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bordeaux) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Bordeaux)
✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
HAZ
More Friendlies
24 Jul 2024