Las Palmas 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Aug 2024

Las Palmas
1-1 HT 1-0
Real Madrid
📅29/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Las Palmas vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
6.35
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
52%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.23
Over
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No Pick
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
26%
4.62
2-3
40%
1.9
4-5
23%
2.86
6+
11%
8.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.62 — our 26% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
12.8
1/2
5%
21.85
1/X
7%
20.9
X/1
11%
16.65
X/2
22%
3.52
X/X
10%
7.33
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.59
2/X
8%
20.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
12%
+10.1pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.9pp
52%
Away Win
70%
-17.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Palmas v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 75%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.01/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.06
-26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +3%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 455 · 82%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
15.9 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Las Palmas vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.65 xG 2.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
475 Passes 438
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
27.09.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
31.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-3 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
01.03.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
24.09.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Las Palmas 1-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
0.76 xG 2.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
360 Passes 477
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 51
14 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Palmas and Real Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Las Palmas had 44% of the ball to Real Madrid's 56%, shots finished 7-25, expected goals 0.76 to 2.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Las Palmas and 2.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?

Las Palmas 1-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 22%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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