Andratx 2-3 UD Alzira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.56
Over
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
39%
4-5
19%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Andratx EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Alzira EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.43/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.93
+20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Andratx
1W-1D-0L
AWAY UD Alzira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 UD Alzira UD Alzira 2-2 HT 2-0 Andratx Andratx İS4
22.10.2023 Andratx Andratx 1-0 HT 1-0 UD Alzira UD Alzira İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Andratx
2-3
AWAY UD Alzira
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Andratx vs UD Alzira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Alzira squeezed past Andratx 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; UD Alzira found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Andratx had 52% of the ball to UD Alzira's 48%, shots finished 7-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Andratx had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Andratx and 1.00 for UD Alzira.

What was the final score of Andratx vs UD Alzira?

Andratx 2-3 UD Alzira in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Andratx vs UD Alzira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Andratx win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Andratx 37%, draw 28%, UD Alzira 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Andratx) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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