Cesena 4-2 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.37 — our 25% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
14%
4.06
X/2
11%
9.99
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.6
2/2
8%
7.68
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -24%
1.74/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.46
+9% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -82% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 81%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
13.0 Crosses 8.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Mantova
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Mantova Mantova 1-2 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
08.05.2021 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 2-1 Mantova Mantova İTC
03.04.2021 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
13.12.2020 Mantova Mantova 0-4 HT 0-2 Cesena Cesena İTC
13.04.2010 Cesena Cesena 3-1 HT 2-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
15.11.2009 Mantova Mantova 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
4-2
AWAY Mantova
2.34 xG 1.96
33% Ball Possession 67%
16 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
223 Passes 522
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena beat Mantova 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Cesena had 33% of the ball to Mantova's 67%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 2.34 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cesena and 0.50 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Mantova?

Cesena 4-2 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Cesena 53%, draw 24%, Mantova 24%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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