Hoffenheim 3-4 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
6.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.03
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
10%
12.35
X/1
10%
5.43
X/2
14%
6.54
X/X
9%
5.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
20%
3.93
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+7.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.79/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.53
+25% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
19.1 Crosses 17.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.63 xG 0.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
344 Passes 375
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-1 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
07.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
07.10.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
21.02.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-0 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.10.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
3-4
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.22 xG 3.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
258 Passes 533
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
15 Box Touches 56
12 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen nicked a narrow win over Hoffenheim 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 40% — and on the day Werder Bremen made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 36% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 64%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 1.22 to 3.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Werder Bremen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.17 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Hoffenheim 3-4 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 36%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen 40%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
29 Sep 2024
16:30 Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →