Hertha Berlin 1-4 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.87
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
14%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.32
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.71
X/2
8%
8.66
X/X
9%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.2
2/2
15%
5.4
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.2pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
2.18/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.68
+71% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.9 Crosses 11.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.19 xG 1.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
428 Passes 394
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 4-2 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
03.12.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 5-1 HT 2-1 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
1-4
AWAY Elversberg
0.99 xG 2.38
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 7
359 Passes 196
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg swept aside Hertha Berlin 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hertha Berlin at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 62% of the ball to Elversberg's 38%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.99 to 2.38.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Hertha Berlin and 2.50 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Elversberg?

Hertha Berlin 1-4 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 45%, draw 26%, Elversberg 29%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hertha Berlin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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