Ingolstadt 2-1 Hansa Rostock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
2.07
Over
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.94
2-3
44%
1.84
4-5
19%
3.14
6+
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.88
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.86
X/2
14%
6.83
X/X
10%
5.07
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
11%
4.62
2/X
11%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Hansa Rostock EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.29/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
-1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +33%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
231 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
25.4 Crosses 17.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Hansa Rostock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
283 Passes 303
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2022 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL2
04.12.2021 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 1-1 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
04.05.2021 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 1-1 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
16.12.2020 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-0 HT 1-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
22.02.2020 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 3-0 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
23.08.2019 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 1-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
2-1
AWAY Hansa Rostock
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 10
244 Passes 363
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Hansa Rostock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt squeezed past Hansa Rostock 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 41% of the ball to Hansa Rostock's 59%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.17 for Hansa Rostock.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Hansa Rostock?

Ingolstadt 2-1 Hansa Rostock in the Germany - 3rd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Hansa Rostock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 43%, draw 26%, Hansa Rostock 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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