Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
2.03
Over
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.83
2-3
40%
1.83
4-5
20%
3.2
6+
9%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.83 — our 31% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.58
X/2
9%
7.27
X/X
11%
5.12
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
16%
5.1
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.9pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.37/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.63
-15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
36.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Verl
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
03.10.2023 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 2-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
07.01.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 HT 1-1 Verl Verl HAZ
20.07.2018 Verl Verl 0-5 HT 0-3 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2-1
AWAY Verl
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
258 Passes 283
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld nicked a narrow win over Verl 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Arminia Bielefeld made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 49% of the ball to Verl's 51%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.00 for Verl.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Verl?

Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 39%, draw 29%, Verl 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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