Santos 1-0 Operario PR — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
60%
1.6
Over
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.53
No Pick
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.51
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
19%
4.72
6+
7%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.3pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Operario PR EU Bookmakers 15%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.31/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.53
+10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
26.0 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Operario PR
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.78 xG 0.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
276 Passes 291
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 Santos Santos 1-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
15.06.2024 Operario PR Operario PR 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-0
AWAY Operario PR
1.10 xG 0.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
296 Passes 340
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Santos vs Operario PR
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Operario PR 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Santos had 48% of the ball to Operario PR's 52%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.10 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Santos and 0.50 for Operario PR.

What was the final score of Santos vs Operario PR?

Santos 1-0 Operario PR in the Brazil - Serie B on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Operario PR?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Santos 58%, draw 24%, Operario PR 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
29 Sep 2024
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