MOL Fehervar 1-2 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 29 Sep 2024

MOL Fehervar
1-2 HT 1-0
Paksi SE
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2024/2025

MOL Fehervar vs Paksi SE Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.0pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MOL Fehervar v Paksi SE — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 40%
+21% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.71/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.59
+49% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
19.0 Crosses 23.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

MOL Fehervar vs Paksi SE Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MOL Fehervar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Paksi SE
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
334 Passes 282
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 38
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.04.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-2 HT 0-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
16.12.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-0 HT 2-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
02.09.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
11.03.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-1 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
22.10.2022 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-1 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
31.07.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC

MOL Fehervar 1-2 Paksi SE — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MOL Fehervar
1-2
AWAY Paksi SE
1.18 xG 2.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
246 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MOL Fehervar vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE nicked a narrow win over MOL Fehervar 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was MOL Fehervar at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MOL Fehervar had 42% of the ball to Paksi SE's 58%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.18 to 2.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paksi SE's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for MOL Fehervar and 1.33 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of MOL Fehervar vs Paksi SE?

MOL Fehervar 1-2 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MOL Fehervar vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated a MOL Fehervar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split MOL Fehervar 41%, draw 28%, Paksi SE 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MOL Fehervar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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