Korona Kielce 2-3 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 29 Sep 2024

Korona Kielce
2-3 HT 1-1
Lech Poznan
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.58
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
14%
7.3
X/2
11%
4.36
X/X
14%
4.5
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.73
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+6.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-8.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 51%
+8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.37/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.18
+15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
313 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
21.0 Crosses 20.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 2.28
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
222 Passes 430
66% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.05.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-3 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
06.11.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-2 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
14.06.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-3 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
10.11.2019 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
30.03.2019 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Korona Kielce 2-3 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
2-3
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.90 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
266 Passes 346
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan nicked a narrow win over Korona Kielce 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Lech Poznan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 45% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 55%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.90 to 1.33 — on chances, Korona Kielce could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.67 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan?

Korona Kielce 2-3 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 33%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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