Sakaryaspor 1-3 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 26% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.1
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
14%
4.77
X/2
11%
6.3
X/X
10%
4.57
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
10%
4.6
2/X
11%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 34%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -15%
1.43/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.51
+17% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.9 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sakaryaspor
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.50 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
379 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.01.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
26.08.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sakaryaspor
1-3
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.03 xG 0.63
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
313 Passes 253
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 7
31 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor got the better of Sakaryaspor 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sakaryaspor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sakaryaspor had 56% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 44%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.03 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sakaryaspor and 1.00 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Sakaryaspor 1-3 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sakaryaspor 43%, draw 28%, Ümraniyespor 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sakaryaspor), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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