Moss 1-5 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.4
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
67%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.66
No
40%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.25
2-3 Goals
31%
1.96
4-5 Goals
30%
2.52
6+ Goals
18%
5.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
28%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
15%
-0.1pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.7pp
67%
Away Win
66%
+0.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.8pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moss EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 70%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.38/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.48/0.81
+29% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moss
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lilleström
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Lilleström Lilleström 3-0 HT 2-0 Moss Moss NOR1
15.06.2005 Lilleström Lilleström 3-3 HT 1-0 Moss Moss NOK
POST-MATCH Moss vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström ran out comfortable winners over Moss 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lilleström as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lilleström led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Moss and 3.00 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Moss vs Lilleström?

Moss 1-5 Lilleström in the Norway - 1st Division on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moss vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Moss 15%, draw 18%, Lilleström 67%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lilleström), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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