Lincoln City 2-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.3
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
17%
3.97
X/2
7%
9.0
X/X
16%
4.73
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
8%
7.19
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.59/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.32
+32% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
318 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 71%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
17.4 Crosses 14.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 0.82
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
224 Passes 289
64% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.12.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
15.08.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-2 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
23.01.2021 Lincoln City Lincoln City 2-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.12.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-4 HT 0-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
09.02.2019 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-1 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
10.11.2018 Lincoln City Lincoln City 3-2 HT 1-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
2-1
AWAY Northampton Town
1.22 xG 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 0
271 Passes 246
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City squeezed past Northampton Town 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lincoln City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lincoln City had 52% of the ball to Northampton Town's 48%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.22 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Lincoln City and 1.33 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Northampton Town?

Lincoln City 2-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 49%, draw 28%, Northampton Town 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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