Vasco da Gama 3-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Oct 2024

Vasco da Gama
3-2 HT 3-1
Bahia
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vasco da Gama vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.99
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
10%
5.68
X/2
13%
5.3
X/X
15%
4.33
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
10%
3.62
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vasco da Gama v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.30/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.45
-6% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -32%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 82%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.1 Crosses 16.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vasco da Gama vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bahia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
282 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
04.09.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
02.05.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
28.08.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
15.05.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
31.01.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Vasco da Gama 3-2 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
3-2
AWAY Bahia
1.86 xG 2.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
372 Passes 405
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Vasco da Gama vs Bahia
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Vasco da Gama edged past Bahia 3-2 in the Brazil - Serie A on 29 Oct 2024. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 43% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 48% of the ball to Bahia's 52%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.86 to 2.01.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.00 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?

Vasco da Gama 3-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 40%, draw 29%, Bahia 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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