Najma 0-1 Al Raed — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.95
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.95
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 34% vs market 28.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
12%
1/X
3%
X/1
18%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Najma EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Raed EU Bookmakers 49%
-49% / -49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Najma
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Al Raed
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.83 xG 0.34
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
182 Passes 409
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
25.09.2023 Najma 2-1 HT 2-0 Al Raed Al Raed SAKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Najma
0-1
AWAY Al Raed
1.79 xG 1.12
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
280 Passes 389
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Najma vs Al Raed
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Raed edged past Najma 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Raed as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Najma had 47% of the ball to Al Raed's 53%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.79 to 1.12 — on chances, Najma could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Najma vs Al Raed?

Najma 0-1 Al Raed in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Najma vs Al Raed?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Raed win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Najma 32%, draw 23%, Al Raed 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Raed), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Raed) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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