Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 29 Nov 2024

📅29/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
57%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
36%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
17%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
56%
Away Win
59%
-2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.7pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 62%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.82/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/0.93
+132% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
238 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
29.07.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
17.03.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1-2
AWAY Cherno More Varna
42% Ball Possession 58%
4 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna edged past Septemvri Sofia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 42% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 58%, shots finished 4-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 2.50 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 18%, draw 25%, Cherno More Varna 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
29 Nov 2024
15:30 Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Analysis →