MSV Duisburg 3-1 Alemannia Aachen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.82
Over 2.5
55%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
27%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.91
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
14%
4.86
X/2
9%
7.17
X/X
10%
4.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.3
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+5.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-2.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
51%
-6.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
49%
+6.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.2pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Alemannia Aachen EU Bookmakers 31%
+15% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.68/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.55
+3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.4 Crosses 13.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Alemannia Aachen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
14.04.2012 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
06.11.2011 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 2-2 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
08.04.2011 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
14.11.2010 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 2-2 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
09.05.2010 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-1 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
18.12.2009 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
3-1
AWAY Alemannia Aachen
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
240 Passes 305
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Alemannia Aachen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg saw off Alemannia Aachen 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had MSV Duisburg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 45% of the ball to Alemannia Aachen's 55%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MSV Duisburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.50 for Alemannia Aachen.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Alemannia Aachen?

MSV Duisburg 3-1 Alemannia Aachen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Alemannia Aachen?

Before kick-off our model rated a MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 51%, draw 23%, Alemannia Aachen 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MSV Duisburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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