TransMara Sugar 0-1 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

TransMara Sugar
0-1 HT 0-1
Tusker
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

TransMara Sugar vs Tusker Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
32%
2.66
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
Over 2.5
29%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
9%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.0pp
32%
Draw
34%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.0pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

TransMara Sugar v Tusker — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.95/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.06
+4% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3

TransMara Sugar vs Tusker Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TransMara Sugar
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Tusker
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 1-1 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
27.11.2024 Tusker Tusker 2-1 HT 1-1 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar KEN
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker nicked a narrow win over TransMara Sugar 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Tusker found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (71%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tusker led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for TransMara Sugar and 1.50 for Tusker.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Tusker?

TransMara Sugar 0-1 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 36%, draw 32%, Tusker 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (TransMara Sugar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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