Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

Baltika Kaliningrad
1-0 HT 0-0
Spartak Moskova
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2025/2026

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.48
Over
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
38%
4-5
20%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baltika Kaliningrad v Spartak Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.46/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.23
-6% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
18.2 Crosses 19.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.89 xG 1.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
269 Passes 238
70% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.07.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-3 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
14.05.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUSK
25.11.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-2 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
31.07.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 Spartak Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1-0
AWAY Spartak Moskova
0.65 xG 1.39
25% Ball Possession 75%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 13
108 Passes 475
58% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad nicked a narrow win over Spartak Moskova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Baltika Kaliningrad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 25% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 75%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.65 to 1.39 — on chances, Spartak Moskova could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 1.00 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moskova?

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 31%, draw 30%, Spartak Moskova 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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