Exeter City 4-4 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.94
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.69
X/2
8%
6.63
X/X
9%
5.07
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
18%
4.73
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.17/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.22
-23% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
352 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 65%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
23.7 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.13 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
274 Passes 248
69% Pass Accuracy 63%
24 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
15.03.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
19.10.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
27.02.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
20.10.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
29.02.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
4-4
AWAY Crawley Town
1.55 xG 1.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
364 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City and Crawley Town couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 1-4. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Exeter City at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Exeter City had 56% of the ball to Crawley Town's 44%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.55 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Exeter City and 1.17 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Crawley Town?

Exeter City 4-4 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 42%, draw 24%, Crawley Town 34%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Exeter City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Exeter City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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