Napoli 1-0 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 29% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.54
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.85
X/1
18%
3.37
X/2
4%
20.2
X/X
13%
7.29
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
8%
16.9
2/X
4%
24.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
72%
-11.7pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.5pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+5.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.8pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.89/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/2.05
-12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
453 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.3 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Venezia
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.83 xG 0.49
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
570 Passes 330
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.02.2022 Venezia Venezia 0-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
22.08.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
07.12.2003 Venezia Venezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTB
21.12.2002 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-0
AWAY Venezia
1.97 xG 0.21
67% Ball Possession 33%
25 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 4
496 Passes 215
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
48 Box Touches 11
35 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli squeezed past Venezia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Napoli had 67% of the ball to Venezia's 33%, shots finished 25-4, expected goals 1.97 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Napoli's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Napoli and 0.25 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Venezia?

Napoli 1-0 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Napoli 60%, draw 24%, Venezia 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
29 Dec 2024
14:30 Udinese vs Torino Analysis →
20:00 Juventus vs Fiorentina Analysis →
22:45 Milan vs Roma Analysis →