Milan 1-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Dec 2024

Milan
1-1 HT 1-1
Roma
📅29/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
15%
5.01
X/2
12%
6.51
X/X
12%
4.1
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
12%
4.78
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -19%
1.52/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.65
+0% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
398 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 82%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.0 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roma
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.33 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
464 Passes 372
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2024 Roma Roma 5-2 HT 2-1 Milan Milan HAZ
18.04.2024 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan AVL
11.04.2024 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma AVL
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
29.04.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-1
AWAY Roma
1.88 xG 1.26
45% Ball Possession 55%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
308 Passes 379
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
42 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Milan vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Roma couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Milan had 45% of the ball to Roma's 55%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.88 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Milan and 1.83 for Roma.

What was the final score of Milan vs Roma?

Milan 1-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Milan 44%, draw 27%, Roma 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Milan), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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