Roma 5-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 31 May 2024

Roma
5-2 HT 2-1
Milan
📅31/05/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.29
Over 2.5
42%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.5
No
55%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
7.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.82 — our 30% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.35
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
10%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
8.22
X/2
10%
4.79
X/X
11%
5.36
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.5
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · X/1 at 8.22 — our 16% vs market 8.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
38%
Away Win
48%
-9.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
40%
+18.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
60%
-18.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
62%
-17.2pp
55%
BTTS No
38%
+17.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 52%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.21/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.20/1.47
-28% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 85%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
8.7 Crosses 10.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Milan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 1.27
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
317 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.04.2024 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan AVL
11.04.2024 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma AVL
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
29.04.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
08.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
5-2
AWAY Milan
1.38 xG 1.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 24
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
585 Passes 494
93% Pass Accuracy 92%
24 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Roma vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma swept aside Milan 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Roma made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 54% of the ball to Milan's 46%, shots finished 19-24, expected goals 1.38 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Roma and 1.50 for Milan.

What was the final score of Roma vs Milan?

Roma 5-2 Milan in the Friendlies on 31/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Roma 34%, draw 27%, Milan 38%. The final score 5-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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