Milan 0-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 11 Apr 2024

Milan
0-1 HT 0-1
Roma
📅11/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
12%
13.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.15
X/1
19%
4.07
X/2
11%
9.18
X/X
9%
4.94
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
11%
7.07
2/X
8%
14.9
Value flag · 1/X at 14.15 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.3pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 25%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.95/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.45
-12% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +97%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
17.2 Crosses 12.2
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Roma
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
416 Passes 307
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
29.04.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
08.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.01.2022 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
31.10.2021 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
0-1
AWAY Roma
1.61 xG 0.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
473 Passes 412
92% Pass Accuracy 88%
31 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma nicked a narrow win over Milan 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Milan had 53% of the ball to Roma's 47%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 1.61 to 0.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Milan.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Milan and 1.17 for Roma.

What was the final score of Milan vs Roma?

Milan 0-1 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Milan 44%, draw 28%, Roma 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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